Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
